2014: Global Temperature Stalls Another Year

  • Date: 16/01/15
  • Dr David Whitehouse

The addition of 2014 global temperature data confirms that the post-1997 standstill seen in global annual average surface temperature has continued for one more year making it now about 17 years in duration. 

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According to the Nasa  global temperature database 2014 was technically a record “beating” 2010 by the small margin of 0.02 deg C. The NASA press release is highly misleading saying that 2014 is a record without giving the actual 2014 figure, or any other year, or its associated error.

In reality of course it is no record at all as the error of the measurements is about +/- 0.1 deg C showing NasaGiss’ statement to go against the normal treatment of observational data and its errors. Talk of a record is therefore scientifically and statistically meaningless.

Interestingly the December 2013-November 2014 NasaGiss figure was not the highest meaning that the “record” for 2014 merely depended on if December 2014 was warmer than December 2013. The warm year that was 2014 has been attributed to exceptionally conditions in the north-east Pacific, that is not directly due to “global warming.”

The BEST reanalysis consortium have also reported their findings which are similar and their interpretation is in stark contrast to Nasa’s: “The global surface temperature average (land and sea) for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850; however, within the margin of error, it is tied with 2005 and 2010 and so we can’t be certain it set a new record.”

The only conclusion to be drawn from the addition of 2014 data is that the post-1997 standstill seen in global annual average surface temperature has continued for one more year making it now about 17 years in duration. This is the opposite of what is claimed in the Nasa press release.

It is clear beyond doubt by now that there is a growing discrepancy between computer climate projections and real-world data that questions their ability to produce meaningful projections about future climatic conditions.

Feedback: david.whitehouse@thegwpf.com