Lawrence Solomon: Climate & Other Predictions For 2015

  • Date: 13/01/15
  • Lawrence Solomon, National Post

[…] In 2015, I predict, the cause of global warming will continue to lose ground, even if, as expected, Pope Francis outs himself as a convert to the Church of Global Warming.

Temperatures will again fail to behave as projected by the computer models, the public will again yawn at the faithful’s threats of the coming apocalypse and politicians will again pay lip service to global warming while kissing renewables subsidies goodbye.

As renewables lose momentum in 2015, fossil fuels will gain it. It can’t really be otherwise. If the glut we now see in oil and gas continues, the low prices that result will spur consumption. A rise in prices, on the other hand, would only further spur shale gas and oil development. Up or down, I predict, the environmental lobby loses the energy war, even if — should President Obama veto the Keystone XL Pipeline — it wins some battles.

Obama’s refusal would nevertheless be a hollow victory for environmentalists — Alberta oil will flow, Keystone or not. More significantly, environmentalism will increasingly seem a hollow pursuit by the generation about to inherit this earth: Today’s youth, having been force-fed an unrelenting diet of hype and fear, will have trouble stomaching more. Polls show youth’s appetite for things environmental has been waning. Look for this trend to continue.

The environmental mush that youth are rejecting originates largely from the mainstream media, which also dishes out pap when covering other politically correct issues. Herein lies much of the explanation for the collapse of the media’s authority — and thus of its audience. Among the cable news networks, CNN in 2014 logged the lowest audience in its history. Hard-left MSNBC got hit especially hard, with a 17% decline in prime time audience following a 29% decline in 2013. These ratings catastrophes contrast with those of Fox News, the only politically incorrect media outlet on global warming, on President Obama and on most other sensitive subjects. Fox — which scored the largest audience in cable news for 13 straight years now — bucked the disappearing-audience trend by increasing the size of its lucrative prime time audience in 2014, by scoring the 14 most popular shows, and by attracting more viewers than CNN and MSNBC combined. […]

All told, I predict, free markets and free ideas and free people will prosper in 2015. This time next year, I’ll report back to you on how well these predictions held up.

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