Forget Paris: Global Fossil Fuel Consumption To Rise By 20% By 2040, BP Energy Outlook

  • Date: 23/02/18
  • Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That

This year’s BP Energy Outlook is now out:

These are the highlights:

The speed of the energy transition is uncertain and the new Outlook considers a range of scenarios. Its evolving transition (ET) scenario, which assumes that government policies, technologies and societal preferences evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past, expects:

  • Fast growth in developing economies drives up global energy demand a third higher.
  • The global energy mix is the most diverse the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around 25%.
  • Renewables are by far the fastest-growing fuel source, increasing five-fold and providing around 14% of primary energy.
  • Demand for oil grows over much of Outlook period before plateauing in the later years.
  • Natural gas demand grows strongly and overtakes coal as the second largest source of energy.
  • Oil and gas together account for over half of the world’s energy
  • Global coal consumption flatlines with Chinese coal consumption seeming increasingly likely to have plateaued.
  • The number of electric cars grows to around 15% of the car parc, but because of the much higher intensity with which they are used, account for 30% of passenger vehicle kilometres.
  • Carbon emissions continue to rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of actions to achieve a decisive break from the past.

Under the ET scenario, fossil fuel consumption continues to rise steadily from 11354 Mtoe in 2016, to 13308 Mtoe in 2040, an increase of 17%.


 The biggest increases occur in Asia, mainly outside of China. Fossil fuel consumption in the US only falls slightly by 3%. And even in the EU, fossil fuels still account for 59% of primary energy in 2040.


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