Costing the Green Grid

This paper presents a new model of the 2050 grid. In contrast to many other studies in the fields it:

• encapsulates four decades of weather, and, uniquely, considers the effects on both supply and demand

• considers the costs and efficiencies that pertain today, as well as speculations about those that might pertain in the future.

The results are compared and contrasted with those of the recent Royal Society study on large-scale electricity storage, which concluded that electricity in 2050 would be cheaper than today, and not much more expensive than it has been in the past. The Royal Society findings are criticised for:

• using an incorrect demand curve

• failing to model weather effects on demand

• using highly optimistic assumptions about technology in 2050, and failing to highlight the extent to which these drove its key findings.

The paper finds that with current technology, the cost of the grid would be as high as £250 billion per year, or £8000 per household. That level of expenditure would need to be maintained indefinitely.

It concludes by calling for the withdrawal of the Royal Society paper.

Costing the Green Grid

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Update

An error in Scenario 2 has been corrected. The original findings of that scenario were that the Royal Society’s use of an erroneous demand curve led to an understatement of the results. That conclusion is no longer valid. While the Royal Society’s results were indeed understated on this score, the difference is immaterial.

The other scenarios are unaffected.