No Trend In Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Of The Philippines

  • Date: 11/11/13
  • CO2 Science Magazine

Despite global warming during the 20th century the number of tropical cyclones annually making landfall in the Philippines did not experience any net change. All variability was merely oscillatory activity around a mean trend of zero slope.

Reference
Kubota, H. and Chan, J.C.L. 2009. Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL038108.

Background
The authors write that “the variability of TC [tropical cyclone] activity (including the frequency of occurrence and intensity) has become a great concern because it may be affected by global warming,” and it is this hypothesis that provides the impetus for their study.

What was done
Kubota and Chan created a unique dataset of TLP (tropical cyclone landfall numbers in the Philippines) based on historical observations of TC tracks during the period 1901-1940 that were obtained from Monthly Bulletins of the Philippine Weather Bureau and combined with TLP data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the period 1945-2005, which they then used to investigate the TC-global warming hypothesis.

What was learned
The two Asian researchers report that “the TLP has an apparent oscillation of about 32 years before 1939 and an oscillation of about 10-22 years after 1945,” but that “no long-term trend is found.” In addition, they determined that “natural variability related to ENSO [El Niño-Southern Oscillation] and PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] phases appears to prevail in the interdecadal variability of TLP.”

 

What it means
In response to what climate alarmists call the unprecedented global warming of the 20th century — and about which they express the gravest concern — the number of tropical cyclones annually making landfall in the Philippines did not experience any net change. All variability was merely oscillatory activity around a mean trend of zero slope.

CO2 Science Magazine, September 2009



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