La Nina Is Already Here According to Japan As U.S. Drops Watch

  • Date: 11/09/16
  • Bloomberg

La Nina, a weather pattern that can cause flooding in parts of Asia and colder weather in the US , has set in and may continue through the winter, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, a day after the US dropped its watch for the event.

Fig.1 Five-month running mean of the SST deviation for NINO.3 predicted by JMA’s El Niño prediction model (JMA/MRI-CGCM2). Red dots indicate observed values, and boxes indicate predictions. Each box denotes the range where the value will be included with the probability of 70%.

There is 70 per cent chance that the event, which also causes dry weather in Brazil, may continue through the winter period, the Japanese forecaster said on its website. The US Climate Prediction Center said Thursday it was dropping its La Nina watch and lowered the odds it will form this year to 35 to 45 per cent from 75 per cent in June. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says a late and weak La Nina is still possible.

The onset of La Nina can bring more rains to countries including Indonesia, India and Thailand and help ease stress on palm oil and sugar cane from two years of below average rains caused by El Nino. While there’s little chance of the event forming this year, any event is unlikely to affect commodity supplies, according to Olam International. Still some investors may be caught off-guard if the weather event materialises, according to Naohiro Niimura, partner at Market Risk Advisory, a researcher in Tokyo.

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La Nina is off the table says NOAA

Once the “Godzilla El Niño” ended this past spring, most meteorologists were expecting a La Niña by this fall or winter.

Now, it appears meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are ditching that expectation and looking for what’s called ENSO neutral — or more normal conditions.

Those initial expectations were from looking at past big El Niños like 1982-83 and 1997-98, both of which were followed by major La Niña events.

The most recent El Niño appears to be different.

Atmospheric conditions and forecast models show a better chance of ocean temperatures remaining closer to that neutral mark than dropping to that La Niña threshold.

So what does all of this mean?

It means a return to “normal” conditions and more typical fall and winter seasons.

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