First El Nino Warming, Now Brace For La Nina Cooling

  • Date: 15/01/16
  • Nyshka Chandran, CNBC

Wild weather swings from the phenomenon known as El Nino have rocked commodities and countries from Australia to Paraguay. Now, analysts are tipping renewed jitters spurred by La Nina, El Nino’s little sister.

While El Nino is characterized by rising sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, La Nina represents periods of below-average temperatures, which produces an opposite weather impact. So while El Nino saw record heat in Australia and warm climate in North America during December, La Nina is expected to bring rains Down Under and intensified chills in North America during the same period.

“Our analysis above suggests an 89 percent likelihood of a La Nina event occurring an average of twelve months after the end of an El Nino, but may also develop as soon as three months afterwards,” Societe Generale (SocGen) said in a recent note.

The latter scenario occurred back in 1997-1998 following a record El Nino, the bank added.

The fact that this year’s El Nino is being called the most powerful ever could see history repeat itself. If that happens, La Nina could hit before Christmas based on U.S. government forecasts for the current El Nino cycle to fade by May-July.

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