Another New Paper Confirms Global Warming Pause

  • Date: 18/04/17
  • Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That

The “uncertainty monster” strikes again

We’ve been highly critical for some time of the paper in summer 2015 by Karl et al. that claimed “the pause” or hiatus went away once “properly adjusted” ocean surface temperature data was applied to the global surface temperature dataset. Virtually everyone in the climate skeptic community considers Karl et al. little more than a sleight of hand.

No matter, this paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.

That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.

Also of note, see the offset as designated by the two colored X’s in Figure 1:

Models and observations don’t even begin to match.

The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses

Christopher Hedemann, Thorsten Mauritsen, Johann Jungclaus & Jochem Marotzke
Nature Climate Change (2017) doi:10.1038/nclimate3274
Received 12 July 2016 Accepted 17 March 2017 Published online 17 April 2017

During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated1. This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing234, while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean5678910caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models1. However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible111213141516. Here we show that the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance. Energy budgeting for the ocean surface layer over a 100-member historical ensemble reveals that hiatuses are caused by energy-flux deviations as small as 0.08Wm−2, which can originate at the top of the atmosphere, in the ocean, or both. Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3274.html
(paywalled)

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see also: Despite NOAA Denial, Growing Number of New Studies Confirm Global Warming Hiatus

Image result for GWPF NOAA pause hasn't gone away

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